US Economy: The Obama Factor

Barack ObamaThe overall U.S. trade deficit shrank by 5.68 percent in March 2008, falling to $58.21 billion from the adjusted February 2008 level of $61.71 billion. Exports fell by 1.71 percent, to $148.51 billion, for the first time since January 2007. Imports dropped by 2.86 percent, to $206.72 billion. The fall-offs were especially sharp in goods trade – where exports sank by 2.37 percent, to $104.73 billion, and imports declined by 3.36 percent, to $173.34 billion.

The prediction markets forecast a Obama presidency in 2009. The most important and most immediate impact of a potential Obama win would be in the area of foreign policy. The Bush doctrine increased the price of a barrel of crude oil. The troubled U.S. relationship with oil-producing nations Venezuela, Russia and Iran in particular added atleast $20-$30 premium in the per barrel oil price. Lower oil prices and the consequent moderate increase in energy demand domestically, could help reverse another long-term trend: the weaker dollar. U.S. energy imports are running 30-40% of total imports. If the U.S. imports less oil or pays less for the oil that it does import, the trade deficit will improve, increasing the demand for dollars.

Obama understands that America needs fair trade policies that will create a level playing field with our trading partners. He understands that the corporate race to the bottom has had a devastating impact on our economy and our communities.

Obama calls for greater government regulation of the U.S. financial system and proposed a new $30 billion economic stimulus plan to help homeowners. The plan includes a $10 billion foreclosure prevention fund to help people keep their homes. It also includes $10 billion in relief for state and local governments hit hardest by housing crisis. He alos outlined six “core principles for reform” that would give the Federal Reserve supervisory authority over any financial institution to which it might make credit available and calls for reform and streamlining of financial regulatory agencies.

Obama may provide the United States a chance for a fresh start.